Millions of Ukrainians have fled the war with Russia and martial law is in effect. Is a 2024 presidential election possible?
Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would only serve a single term when elected in 2019. (ABC News: Valentyn Ogirenko; Reuters: Ukrainian Presidential Press Service/Handout )
When Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was elected by a landslide in April 2019 he said he would only stand for a single term.
Four years later, millions have fled the country and martial law has been in place for almost 18 months after Russia invaded in February 2022.
That martial law order is next set to expire on November 15 – during peacetime, the next election would have been slated for March 2024.
But how likely is it that Ukrainians will be able to vote next year?
No elections can be held under martial law
Ukraine's constitution right now doesn't allow an election while martial law is in effect.
Mr Zelenskyy says he told US Senator Lindsey Graham he's open to an election "as long as our legislators are willing to do it".
"Why? This was because the electoral code would need to be amended," he said in a television interview this week.
The martial law decree automatically renews every 90 days and was last renewed on May 22.
The last time martial law was introduced was in November 2018 for 30 days amid increasing tensions with Russia.
Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) president Tiny Kox said in an interview in May this year that Ukraine must hold elections.
"That is not up to us to say how to do it, but of course Ukraine has to organise free and fair elections," he told news outlet European Pravda.
Mr Zelenskyy initially said he would only remain in office for one term, but he walked that back in May 2020, then again in 2021 restated he had not made up his mind.
"My desire to go for a second term, I think, will completely coincide with the desire of the society," he said in a press conference in May 2021, months before Russia's invasion.
"I think it will very much depend on the percentage of things that I promised and did or did not do."
Peacetime elections come with '5 billion hrynia' pricetag
The cost of an election is the other factor cited by Mr Zelenskyy when it comes to a potential 2024 vote.
He estimated in the same TV interview that during peacetime an election costs "5 billion hrynia", or $210.64 million.
"Since I am not a person who deals with the cobblestones, I cannot just take 5 billion from the budget," he said.
"I don't know how much [money] is needed in wartime. So I told [Lindsey Graham] if the US and Europe provide financial support [we will hold an election].
"I'm sorry I'm not asking for anything, I'm not going to hold elections in credit. I will not take money from weapons and give it to elections."
Damaged infrastructure and millions overseas
Mr Zelenskyy has said an election would need "appropriate opportunities" for millions of people both in Ukraine and internationally to even access polls.
"We don't have such infrastructural capabilities," he said.
There has been $US150.5 billion ($234.13 billion) in damage to Ukraine's infrastructure as of June 2023, according to the Kyiv School of Economics.
World Bank estimated in March that the cost of rebuilding Ukraine at around $US411 billion ($639.38 billion) over the next decade.
Their assessment said nearly 2 million homes and more than one in five public health buildings had been damaged.
According to the United Nations, there are now more than 6.2 million refugees from Ukraine recorded globally. Millions more have been left displaced inside the country.
"Here, we need Europe to help us, for the most part," Mr Zelenskyy said.
"Because Ukrainian [refugees] are in the majority in the European Union today."
Those fighting on the front lines of the invasion would also need to be included, he added.
"We need society to have this choice so that it does not divide our people. So that the military could vote.
"They are defending this democracy today. And not to give them this opportunity because of war — that is unfair."
Russia changes its laws for 2024 elections
Russian President Vladimir Putin in May signed a new law allowing elections under martial law — making way for Russian-run 2024 election inside occupied areas of Ukraine.
The change means Russia's Central Election Commission would be able to call elections in regions under military rule with approval from defence and security officials.
The Kremlin annexed the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson in 2022, following the invasion.
Political parties banned for the duration of martial law
Ukraine's National Security Council has suspended almost a dozen political parties for the duration of martial law.
Mr Zelenskyy announced the move in March 2022, citing each party's ties to Russia.
It's unclear whether the below parties would be reinstated for an election during wartime.
Opposition Platform — For Life
- Pro-Russian and "Eurosceptic", meaning it was critical of the European Union
- One of its founders Viktor Medvedchuk is a personal friend of Vladimir Putin, and has lived in exile in Russia since mid-2022
- The party was banned by court in June 2022
- Its final appeal against the ban was dismissed by Ukraine's Supreme Court in September 2022
Party of Shariy
- Officially libertarian
- Founded by political blogger Anatoly Shariy, who is famous for his criticism of Ukraine's media and government
- Shariy has strongly denied accusations of russophilia, and in May 2023 apologised for arguing Ukraine should "live normally" alongside Russia
- The party's appeal against the ban was rejected by the Supreme Court in September 2022
Nashi
- Led by Yevhen Murayev, a pro-Russian Ukrainian politician and media owner who disappeared after the invasion
- The party supported Russia's invasion of Ukraine
Opposition Bloc
- Considered the successor of the disbanded pro-Russian Party of Regions
- it did not appeal the ban and ceased to exist on July 25 2022
Left Opposition
- A pro-Russian coalition of five political parties, 13 public organisations and six individuals
- It condemned Ukraine's perceived integration with Europe
- It wanted to establish Russian as Ukraine's second language and restore "equally and mutually beneficial relations" with Russia and Belarus
Union of Left Forces
- Led by Maxim Goldarb
- In February 2022, just before the outbreak of war, Goldarb called on the US and UK to "compensate for the damage caused to our economy due to the military panic inspired by them"
- It was never represented in Ukraine's parliament
- its final appeal against the ban was dismissed by the Supreme Court in September 2022
Derzhava
- Formerly known as Rus United
- Banned by the Eighth Administrative Court of Appeal in June 2022
Progressive Socialist Party of Ukraine
- A pro-Russian party led by Nataliya Vitrenko, a pro-Russian Ukrainian politician and scientist
- She is the mother of Ukrainian economist and businessman Yuriy Vitrenko, and accused him of Russophobia in 2021
- Their final appeal against the ban was dismissed by the Supreme Court in September 2022
Socialist Party of Ukraine
- A social democratic party and one of the oldest in Ukraine
- Its slogan was: "Socialism will be imbued with patriotism"
- Led by Oleksandr Moroz
- Their final appeal against the ban was dismissed by the Supreme Court in September 2022
Volodymyr Saldo Bloc
- A minor regionalist political party in Kherson formerly run by Volodymyr Saldo
- Saldo took a pro-Russian position as Kherson's governor at the beginning of the war
- He was awarded the "Order for Merit to the Fatherland" by Vladimir Putin in December 2022
- His deputies announced their opposition to his actions in early 2022
- The party was officially banned by the Eighth Administrative Court of Appeal in June 2022
